Tournament Preview: UCONN

Breaking down the Competition
After a rough stretch to end an otherwise dominating season, the Huskies were able to hold onto a 1 seed, but they were shipped out across the country to the West Regional. UCONN doesn't have the national following that some big time schools like UNC or Duke have, so they will not have much (if any) fan support out on the west coast. The only situation that I can really see this hurting them in is if they face 4 seed Washington in the sweet sixteen.

Washington along with 2 seed Memphis are the only teams that scare me in the west regional. Washington has a bruising post presence in John brockman, the type of player that has given Hasheem Thabeet trouble in the past. He is flanked in the backcourt by lightning quick point guard Isiah Thomas (no relation to the hall of fame NBA player/accomplished homewrecker) and sniper Justin Dentmon who shoots .422 from 3 point range. All 3 players are capable of taking over a game and scoring 20+ points, and UCONN's defense will be severely tested trying to contain the PAC-10's highest scoring offense.

Memphis is a hard team for me to buy into because they haven't really been tested late in the schedule. Conference USA opponents never provide much of an obstacle for coach John Callipari's recruiting Dynamo, and this year in their nonconference they were largely unsuccessful. Not much can be read into that either however because they did not really take off until they moved stud freshman Tyreke Evans to Point Guard. They are always hard to read, but in recent years they have proven that their weak conference schedule does not have any bearing on their tournament success. This year they have almost unmatched athleticism and a deep starting 5. They return a talented frontline of Robert Dozier and Sean Taggert, and Antonio Anderson gives some veteran stability to the backcourt. Their athleticism could really bother UCONN if Thabeet gets in foul trouble and isnt making his presence felt down low on the defensive end.

Breaking down UCONN
UCONN has been a favorite from the get-go to make a strong run at the national championship this year. They returned almost their entire team last year including star 7'3" defensive powerhouse and owner of the Big East's finest dance moves, Hasheem Thabeet. for a 7 footer Thabeet is surprisingly adept at disappearing on the offensive end. He cradles the ball in the post like a fragile christmas ornament and regards taking the ball to the hoop strong as sacrilidge. His offensive ineffeciencies are more than made of for on the opposite end of the floor, however, as every opponent that goes into the lane is forced to think twice. The Junior from Dar es Salaam Tanzania averages 4.6 blocks, but influences so many more that his full impact on a game does not show up on a stat sheet.

With Thabeet anchoring the Defense, A.J. Price leads the Huskies attack. Price has shown the ability to take over games and be a go to guy down the stretch for this team. He is the teams most complete player on offense capable of keeping defenses honest with superior courtvision, and a great jumpshot. Senior Power forward Jeff Adrian will have to be a presence down low for UCONN to be successful, he showed an effective midrange game against Syracuse in the big east tournament's 6OT thriller, but he will need to establish himself in the post or they are going to have a hard time finding any offensive rythym.

The biggest knock on UCONN going into the tournament that has led them to be proclaimed "the number one seed most likely to fall first" by both ESPN expert Doug Gottlieb and fans on ESPNnation, is the loss of Jerome Dyson. While I agree that losing Dyson hurts because he was a gifted scorer that gave the team more options at the end of games, I don't beleive it kills their chances. the Huskies did lose 3 of 7 games down the stretch without Dyson, but 2 of those losses were to a top 5 pittsburgh team, and the third was a 6OT loss against a Syracuse team fighting for a better tournament seed. None of those are bad losses. I would argue that those tough games actually helped the team figure out how they needed to play without Dyson. Dyson's contributions will have to be replaced by the athletic Stanley Robinson, Craig Austrie, and Freshman Kemba Walker. I think Walker is the key here. He plays faster than just about anybody in college basketball, he just needs to keep himself under control. Against Syracuse in the big east tournament he was dribbling through pressure and penetrating with ease, but he was not doing so with a purpose.

My final prediction is that UCONN will make it to the Championship game, defeating Louisville in the final four and playing the winner of the south regional (either UNC or Oklahoma, I am still undecided) for the tourney crown. I think that they will lose to either of those teams, but if Walker learns to keep himself under control, Thabeet stays out of foul trouble, and they are able to make shots and spread the floor, they could easily prove me wrong.

Here is a great article detailing the grit of coach Jim Calhoun and his team.