Tournament Preview: Arizona

Breaking down the Competition
Arizona backed their way into the tournament this year, losing 5 of their final 6 games (4 against tournament teams) to luck into a 12 seed. Their overall resume is relatively weak this year, and they faltered in their conference tournament as well, but the committee was very open minded with their selections this year. In addition to Arizona's bad losses, they also had some very good wins against Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington. The wildcat's enter the tournament as one of the most dangerous and talented 12 seeds in recent memory with a tough road but a legitimate chance to make a run at the elite eight.

Their first round game pits them against Mountain West Conference winner Utah. They are led by 7' Center Luke Neville, who was able to tear up his inferior conference competition to the tune of 16.9 ppg and 9.1 rpg. He will have a harder time matching up against the long, athletic wildcats. Utah is very dangerous, however, if they can get Neville going and spread the floor to their talented shooters on the wings.

A second round matchup would likely match them with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake is one of the most talented teams in the country and when they are running the floor the way they want to, they can beat anyone. Wake features 3 high end NBA prospects in Jeff Teague, James Johnson, and Al farouq-Aminu. Teague is the most dangerous player on the team, capable of taking over a game all on his own as he did when Wake knocked off ACC power North Carolina in January. Wake is a tough matchup for Arizona, because they are so deep and athletic. The wildcats only chance at a victory here is if they can find a way to stop Wake's running game and force them to shoot the ball in the halfcourt set.

If arizona can find a way to make it past Wake Forest, they will run into a brick wall in the Louisville Cardinals. The cards utilize their long, athletic backcourt to frustrate opponents guards and force their tempo. Their offense isn't always spectacular, but Terrence Williams can score with anyone and their depth and experience sets them apart from the rest of the Midwest Region. Arizona would need all of their star players to have the game of their lives to have a chance against Louisville.

Breaking Down Arizona
Arizona is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country. They have three absolute studs that are all capable of filling up a boxscore. Juniors Chase Budinger, Nick Wise, and Jordan Hill have played together on tournament teams for three years with little sucess and should be hungry to make some noise this year. Hill is a very versatile power forward with a good midrange game to compliment his excellent low post game. Hill leads the 'Cats in scoring, rebounding, and blocked shots. Budinger is a small forward that is forced to play a little out of position at times because of Arizona's lack of depth, but his elite athleticism and shooting ability allow him to do this without losing much--if anything. He is one of those guys that can do a little bit of everything. Nick Wise anchors the offense from the Point guard spot, using his sweet stroke to keep defenses honest, and getting other players involved. When Wise is shooting well, and breaking down defenses, Arizona becomes hard to stop.

The Wildcats biggest problem is simply their lack of depth. They lost elite guard Jerryd Bayless to the NBA draft last year, and committed recruit Brandon Jennings jumped ship to play professionally in Europe. With either of those players Arizona would have been a 1 or 2 seed, no question. Without them, they are forced to start guys that should be reserves, and move players out of their comfort zones. Their big three are forced to play the entire game, and they struggle to keep up with teams if they can't control the tempo--hence their questionable defense. Arizona's tournament success will hinge on their ability to keep their stars fresh. That means getting out to early starts, frustrating opponents with their zone defense, and making teams play to their tempo.

I predict a loss to wake forest in the second round for arizona, but wouldn't be surprised if they made it to the elite eight. If they go out in the first round that would be a huge dissapointment.